@LittleTexas : Indeed. We almost have too many models now - and unfortunately - with many models come varying forecasts. Some are more accurate than others - as we are finding out. It's going to be an even longer hurricane season if every storm is "forecasted" this way. We all know it's going to be a hyper active season but the media needs to learn a few things after this storm. People will become numb to the information if every storm is like Beryl.

@teatime : Unless they live in a storm surge area, they should be ok if it stays going to Matagorda Bay. If they live in the storm surge warning, they need to leave.

@StormChaser : I was just thinking the same thing! What kind of a dumb made up name (please excuse me if that is actually someone's beautiful name out there somewhere 😁) it seems like they ran out of good names and made this one up. It's like a contraction from Betty and Darryl 😁I'd much rather deal with Betty Boop, doesn't quite seem as foreboding 😊

4AM SUNDAY BERYL UPDATE: Monday is going to be nasty all across the Houston-Galveston area. 🌀⚠️ As of this morning, Beryl has not yet been upgraded to a hurricane but probably will get stronger today and before the expected landfall very early Monday Near Matagorda Bay and possibly even closer to Brazoria County. *Regardless of landfall location, we expect a large swath of 40-70 mph winds for cities like Freeport, Bay City, Wharton, Rosenberg and possibly Sugar Land, Katy and the Greater Houston area my mid day. *Galveston Island and bay communities will be threatened by a storm surge of 3-6' which will cover low lying roads (some impassible) and may be higher near landfall in Matagorda and Coastal Brazoria Counties.*Rainfall could range from 5-10", so flooding is also a concern on Monday, but fortunately Beryl will be a fast-mover which will limit the duration of heavy rain.*The bottom line is to prepare to not leave your home at all on Monday, so hunker down, be prepared to lose electricity, make sure to have medicines, food that won't spoil, pet food, all that. *Lows of information to help you get prepared can be found at www.fox26houston.com /tropics

@StormChaser :

@StormChaser :
Thank you. Please try to get some rest today. Your body will thank you.

Latest from Tropical Tidbits Sunday 5am: The NHC track update on Beryl nudges EAST again. Expected landfall a little earlier. Possibly now in Brazoria county? That question still remains but the jog east is not good for us. Intensity the same at this time. (Trop storm 60mph winds& gusts to 70) but overnight intensty models TONIGHT still expect Beryl to strengthen pretty fast today on approach. *Latest here for early Monday: *This would bring impacts more inland as pressures will be dropping still after landfall. Sunday AM satellite.*Seeing some convection starting to pop around the center.
*It has barely a day before landfall if it's going to get stronger. ❗ Some models still showing strong in the 970mb range right near landfall. (Strong Cat 1 or low grade Cat 2) www.spaghettimodels.com

@StormChaser :
It looks like we should get 2-6" of needed rain!! 🙏

Notable changes in Beryl pathI didn't want this to get lost in this post but landfall location has a bit more moved EAST - now forecasted to go in at Bay City which is closer to us than Matagorda Bay. The NE quadrant aka dirty side on a storm is the worst and we're right on that edge where that would go. Right now, I would expect the eye to go through areas like Katy and areas of the West side but this could easily change again today. This is the last day to get all the last minute stuff ready. I'm currently putting away and securing all the items and plants in my yard.

@Texasdad : I think we will lose power sometime overnight TONIGHT!

@luannski : I remember well those 'duck and cover' drills that we had in grade school.

@Ticagro : Damn burrito!

SPACE CITY 8AM UPDATE Beryl tracking toward Matagorda, center likely to pass near west side of Houston: Serious impacts expectedJuly 7, 2024 at 7:42 am by Eric BergerIn brief: *We are now less than 24 hours before Beryl will make landfall in Texas, likely near Matagorda, which is located about 90 miles south-southwest of Houston.
*Along this track the greater Houston area, particularly the western half of the metro area, will see significant effects in the form of strong, battering winds in addition to heavy rainfall. This post will assess all of these threats, and their timing.Tropical Storm Beryl status*As of 7 am CT, Tropical Storm Beryl still has sustained winds of 60 mph. Its central pressure is largely unchanged overnight, dropping only slightly from 993 to 992 millibars. *This indicates that Beryl has yet to begin the process of significantly intensifying. *The storm is almost due south of Galveston Island, and is moving to the northwest at 12 mph.*It is good that Beryl has not changed much overnight, but forecasters still expect the storm to find favorable conditions for intensification during the next 18 to 24 hours before it makes a final landfall along the Texas coast.TRACK OF BERYL AND ITS INTENSITY*The trends in the overnight model runs for Beryl have not been great for the Houston metro area. *The most likely track remains a landfall near Matagorda, but this could still change today with a wobble in one direction or another as a better defined center of circulation forms. *Along this track the Houston region will be subjected to some of the strongest winds and heaviest rains from Beryl.*Forecasters still expect Beryl to intensify today, given the lowering wind shear levels and ample moisture in the atmosphere. *The National Hurricane Center predicts the storm will be a Category 1 hurricane with 85 mph winds at landfall early on Monday morning. *This could be an overestimate if Beryl continues to struggle with getting organized today - However, the most likely scenario is strengthening today, with the potential for rapid intensification tonight. *Expect a Category 1 or Category 2 hurricane at landfall.CONDITIONS ON SUNDAY PRIOR TO LANDFALL*Beginning later this morning, Houston may see fairly widespread showers and thunderstorms as the outer rainbands of Beryl move inland. *These storms may be briefly intense, but should be navigable for the most part. *Winds will be increasing today and this evening from the southeast, but still within manageable levels, with gusts in the 20s. *For coastal areas, conditions will start to deteriorate after sunset, with inland areas, including the city of Houston, seeing markedly stronger winds by late evening and after midnight.BERYL'S WINDS*Beryl will produce strong winds near its center and to its right. *Although there are still likely to be some subtle changes in the storm's track and location of its is strongest winds, it is now clear that strong winds will cause significant impacts for the greater Houston area, including the potential for widespread power outages. *The extent of these outages will depend on the strengthening of Beryl today and tonight as it nears the Texas coast. Other concerns include downed trees and damaged roofs. *It is strongly advisable to secure loose objects today, prior to Beryl's landfall.*The greatest impacts are likely to be in locations such as Sargent, Freeport, and Lake Jackson. However, tropical storm-force winds are also likely along Galveston Island and large parts of the Houston metro area, particularly to the south and west of the city.*Matagorda, Wharton, Fort Bend, and Brazoria counties are likely to see the strongest winds, with sustained winds of 45 to 75 mph, and higher gusts. *Most of the rest of the Houston metro area is at risk for winds of 35 to 55 mph, with higher gusts. *These winds will peak between late Sunday night and sunrise for coastal areas, and a little bit later for inland areas.
*Winds will be receding area-wide by Monday afternoon.INLAND RAINFALL POTENTIAL*Beryl's track also places the core of its heavier rains over the Houston metro area. *Coastal areas are likely at the highest risk for heavy rainfall, with 5 to 10 inches likely from Matagorda Bay to Galveston Island, and higher isolated totals. *Further inland, much of the Houston area can probably expect 4 to 8 inches, with higher isolated totals. *Since this rainfall will come down rapidly, we can expect streets to rapidly flood.Rain pic*Although stronger thunderstorms will be possible this evening, the most intense rainfall should occur between midnight tonight and noon on Monday. *After this time the storm will be pulling away to the north of the city. *I cannot rule out an additional trailing band of rainfall later on Monday or Monday night. *However, the fairly rapid northward movement of Beryl after landfall is our friend. *We have issued a Stage 2 flood alert for the entire Houston metro area.HOW SHOULD YOU BE THINKING ABOUT THISBeryl will be an impactful storm for the Houston region. *This is far from a worst-case scenario hurricane for our area, but it will be significantly disruptive tonight and on Monday. *Beginning this evening, you should shelter in your home. The worst of the winds and rains will come tonight and into Monday morning, with improving conditions thereafter. *Due to the likelihood of street flooding on Monday morning, you should carefully consider any plans before noon.*The current track forecast indicates the possibility of widespread power outages, and the duration of these outages will depend on how many people lose power as it will mean more work for restoration crews.....In terms of programming, I will be conducting a video Q&A on our Facebook page at 1 pm CT today. You can submit questions in the comments below for that chat, if you like. Dwight will also have a post today about maximizing the potential of weather data on your phone to understand local conditions during the height of the storm. Our next major update on Beryl's track and its implications for Houston will come around 4:30 pm CT today.

@Jonn : Let's hope that's all we get and it's not all at once lol.