Possible storms tonight OK guys. I'm leary posting this because it seems like EVERY single time over the last 3 months I've posted a rain forecast, we get a big ole goose egg. 🥚🤦‍♀️ Hopefully, this will be the day that changes. Our new drought model is out and is posted at the bottom of this thread. It's ugly. Extreme drought state wide. 🔥..........................Strong to severe storms will be possible this evening, especially for areas along and east of I-45, as a complex of storms moves in from along the TX/LA border. The main threats will be damaging wind, hail, and locally heavy rainfall. • Timing is still ifft but 3pm-9pm looks to be the current window. That timing should be narrowed as our day goes on.
• Strong, gusty winds & frequent lightning would be our biggest threat. Similar to the storm a couple weeks ago. The 105°+ heat this afternoon will put them into overdrive where they occur. Future radar scan of 7pm tonight. These vary but most show decent storms in the area during the evening. Severe threat:Space City touched on this yesterday and will update this morning. "By late Friday evening it is possible that this disturbance drives some sort of line of storms down into the Houston metro area, likely reaching the city just before or after midnight. Not all of our modeling is showing this to happen, but given the potential for instability in the atmosphere I think it's possible. In any case, it's something we should have a better handle on in tomorrow morning's forecast update."....................Also, the latest drought monitor (that was released yesterday) reveals an expansion of Exceptional Drought (the highest possible category) to most areas along and west of the Brazos River in Southeast Texas.

Ugh nooo! I'm on lake Conroe right now! Swimming all day today & going out tonight. Hope it changes it's mind!

Per usual, it keeps getting pushed back on the hourly forecast. 10 PM now...

Headed our direction Ruger5

It's looking better ATM (4:21pm), slowly crawling southward: The red box is a severe t-storm warning, btw.

jwardl : Is that beautiful clump f color at the coast headed inland or out to sea?

Ruger5 : Out to sea.