Hurricane Beryl - Official thread. FRI 4AM UPDATE PG 10............THURS 3PM Pg 9..........THURS 4AM Update............4pm update posted. 👍......WEDNESDAY 11AM UPDATE - PAGE 8.............WED 2AM Update on Page 8.................TUESDAY 6pm update PAGE 8 from Space City Weather. .........11 space City update update Pg 5. ......Pg. 5 5am TUESDAY UPDATE ......Pg 4. 8pm Update ......Pg. 4 update from Space City Weather - Monday 5pm. .....Pg 4 Space City 9am update in comments. ......Sun 2pm
We have a Cat 4! Details on page 2........Sun 10am:
Alright so it will go south, but, once it crosses into the southern Gulf, it could turn north towards Texas so this thing is NOT to be ignored..........Good Sunday morning!This will be the official 'Hurricane Beryl' thread so info I post doesn't get lost in other threads. I've also added some info on Storms #2 & #3 at the bottom of this post. I will start a new thread (if needed) as each storm gets closer to the US mainland. ❗ I will say this about Beryl: High pressure, wind sheer, and steering currents all play into where a storm is 'steered' to makes landfall. A High pressure system over Louisiana should hopefully help keep this storm to our south BUT it is still WAY too early to say to STAY PREPARED. Its going to be a long summer of watching and waiting. We'll see. 😬🤞🏻......................................SUNDAY 6/30 4AM UPDATE:STORM #1️⃣
HURRICANE BERYL:*Hurricane Beryl is packing sustained winds of 100 mph.
*Location: 550 miles east/southeast of Barbados.
*Movement: Westward at 20 mph.*Beryl is expected to be a dangerous major hurricane when it reaches the Windward Islands late tomorrow night or Monday, bringing destructive hurricane-force winds and life-threatening storm surge. FORECAST DISCUSSION: *Unfortunately Beryl has all the ingredients favorable for continued rapid intensification in the short-term.
*The light to moderate easterly shear that had been affecting the system is subsiding, while the hurricane remains embedded in a large area of deep-layer moisture and over 28-29 C sea-surface temperatures. *The small and well-organized inner core likely means the hurricane should take full advantage of these pristine conditions, and both the GFS and ECMWF versions of SHIPS-RII show rapid intensification indices 7 to 10 times above climatology.
*Thus, the latest NHC intensity forecast will explicitly show rapid intensification over the next day, making Beryl a very dangerous CATEGORY 3 hurricane before it moves across the Windward islands by tomorrow night. *Once Beryl enters the Caribbean, there could be a marked increase in westerly vertical wind shear as a strong easterly low-level jet, common for this time of year in the eastern Caribbean Sea, will keep Beryl moving quickly WESTWARD against lighter upper-level upper-level easterlies partially eroded by a deep-layer trough off the Eastern Seaboard.
*Thus some weakening is forecast after 48 hours as Beryl moves further into the Caribbean.
*The NHC intensity forecast remains close to the reliable consensus aids and now shows a peak intensity of 115 mph in 36 hours, though a few of the regional-hurricane models do peak Beryl STRONGER than shown here.*It is still WAY too early to know where landfall will be. *If it does, areas from New Orleans to Brownsville will need to pay VERY close attention.*A Hurricane Warning is currently in effect for...* Barbados
* St. Lucia
* St. Vincent and the Grenadine Islands
* Grenada........................................STORM #2️⃣Yet another tropical storm is expected following Beryl. *Beryl may not be the last early-season tropical storm or hurricane to form in the central or eastern Atlantic Ocean.
*Experts are monitoring another area of potential development to the east of Beryl:"This storm is expected to follow a track very similar to Beryl and can be near the Lesser Antilles around July 3-4 and could eventually bring very heavy rain to portions of the Greater Antilles," warned DaSilva..........................................STORM #3️⃣*Besides Beryl and the another potential developing storm behind it, there is a THIRD area being monitored closer to the U.S. (This is the area south of Texas, close to where Alberto went in)*An area of showers and thunderstorms is located over the Yucatan Peninsula, and its projected path will cross nearly the same locations where Tropical Storm Alberto tracked earlier this month. However, it may run out of time."This area of thunderstorms will have a very short development window on Sunday before it moves inland into Mexico on Sunday night. Regardless of development, very heavy rain can cause dangerous flooding and mudslides across portions of northeastern Mexico," cautioned DaSilva......🌀 The tropical Atlantic could potentially become calmer for a time after next week, but the season is not even a month old yet, and more storms will form throughout the remainder of the season.